The Impact of AI on Entry-Level Jobs

The rise of generative AI is disrupting entry-level opportunities across industries. Getty Images/Unsplash

Recent years have seen the mainstream rise of generative AI, sparking fears about its potential to reduce human job prospects. A new Harvard study confirms these concerns, showing that junior workers are particularly affected, with employment declining significantly at companies adopting AI technologies.

Key Findings from the Harvard Study

The working paper, which utilized datasets from LinkedIn and Revelio Labs, analyzed approximately 62 million workers and 285,000 U.S. firms between 2015 and 2025. It identified a clear trend: junior positions are shrinking at firms that integrate AI. Researchers used AI to identify these adopting companies, finding that 3.7% of the sample embraced the technology over the past decade.

A turning point occurred with the release of ChatGPT in November 2022. From 2015 through mid-2022, both junior and senior employment grew steadily. However, starting in 2022, junior employment began to flatten and then decline. Since the first quarter of 2023, headcount for early-career roles at AI-adopting firms has dropped by 7.7% after six quarters.

In contrast, senior staff have remained largely insulated, with employment for experienced workers continuing to rise since 2015 without the downturn experienced by their younger counterparts.

Why Junior Roles Are Most Affected

One explanation provided in the paper is that early-career white-collar jobs often involve intellectually mundane tasks, such as debugging code or reviewing legal documents—work that generative AI can easily automate. Since junior roles typically serve as stepping stones to senior positions, their decline could erode the bottom rungs of career ladders for new industry entrants.

Sector-Specific Impacts

The severity of AI's impact varies by sector. Industries like wholesale and retail trade, which can automate communication, customer service, and documentation, have seen junior hiring fall by 40% per quarter compared to non-AI-adopting firms. These declines are attributed more to slower hiring rates than to mass layoffs.

Broader Implications and Related Research

This study reinforces recent warnings about the erosion of early-career opportunities. A Stanford study published last month found that workers aged 22 to 25 experienced a 13% relative decline in employment in AI-exposed fields like coding and customer service, while more experienced workers saw job opportunities increase in the same sectors. Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, noted on X that both studies show falling employment levels for young workers in occupations most affected by AI since early 2023.

Together, these analyses represent some of the first large-scale examinations of AI's impact on the labor market, deepening uncertainty for junior workers. The Harvard authors emphasize that college graduates' lifetime wage growth depends heavily on early career advancement from low-paying entry roles. If AI disproportionately affects junior positions, it could have lasting consequences for the college wage premium, upward mobility, and income disparities.